Well, it took a bit, but finally here's my full analysis of Tesla. Disclaimer: I have a small position in Tesla with an average price of around $150/share. The post covers the following: Introduction Fundamental analysis of Tesla's automotive business, including cars sold, capacity, and future investments required. JPMorgan Lowers Price Target for Tesla: JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman cuts the stock price target for Tesla by about 4% to $130, implying a 30% downside from Thursday’s close of $182.63. The reduction follows softer than expected earnings and a warning from Tesla that vehicle volume growth "may be notably lower" this year. Re profit margin on the Tesla vehicles on the road, the cheapest models aka lowest margin ones will dominate. so yeah Tesla doesn't expect to make much making and selling the cars, but rather using them as platforms to upsell on services including FSD subscription packages. It is the sas/pas/steam model on wheels! Why is literally every car company jumping on their charging network, scrambling to ditch stamping and move to large castings, trying to incorporate the same over-the-air updates that Tesla has been already conducting for 10 years, creating direct sales business models to compete with Tesla price agility (BMW is first to bite, with Mini direct ... Based on TSLA's November 11th closing price of $1063, this would be a return of ~3.5x. Including AMaaS and Software projections, my model results in a 2030 price of ~$13000. This would be a return of 12x today's TSLA price. Adjusting my price target with a 10% chance of AMaaS being achieved by 2025, my buy-price target would be $1730.
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